My phone and e-mail were all abuzz yesterday with one question: is it going to really happen? The "it" being, of course, the pull-out of one or more unions from the AFL-CIO. I had calls from reporters who wanted to know what my crystal ball shows. I'll be honest, I can't tell you for sure. But, I can lay out some of the possibilities as kind of a summary of the last few weeks, for those who want a scorecard:
1. A deal gets made at the last minute. You could liken this to a contract bargaining situation where both sides play chicken until a minute before midnight and, then, boom, the differences get split, a handshake seals a deal and everyone goes home to sleep soundly. Dunno. This scenario presumes one or more of the following:
A. The Change To Win unions are simply trying to get the most they can and will stop short of pulling out. And they decide the differences have been narrowed enough for them to stay. By the way, if you're really a glutton, you can see how each camp views the differences by looking at the Officers comparison of the proposals versus the CTW union comparisons (some of the positions have been modified slightly since they each made these comparisons)
B. The non-Change To Win unions become convinced that the CTW folks are serious, that the Federation would be crippled without the per capita dues from the CTW unions and that it ain't worth it. I'm thinking that some of that pressure might come from union leaders who have kept a relatively low profile like Ed McElroy, president of the American Federation of Teachers.
C. If A and B are at all likely, some part of the deal will probably be either an immediate alternative to John Sweeney or an agreement that he serves no more than a year of a new term, and steps down for someone like Terry O'Sullivan of the Laborers, who, has a foot in both camps.
2. No deal gets made. The rhetoric has been pretty strong (and Wilhelm's resignation as head of the Immigration Committee certainly keeps that flame going) Under this scenario....
A. SEIU quickly announces it is leaving, maybe before the convention starts or at its very end. I don't see, right now, any plausible scenario under which SEIU stays--the union has been geared up to leave for many months now.
B. SEIU is joined by the Teamsters, UFCW and UNITE-HERE. The Teamsters are still smoldering over the tiff with the Machinists; the UFCW board has okayed disaffiliation (I think the Sweeney camp misread where the UFCW was in this fight for many months now); and UNITE-HERE
C. I don't think the Laborers leave--for now. The Laborers situation is pretty complex because of the intense pressures inside the building trades. As one wag points out, "The jurisdictional disputes that people complain about outside the building trades are cake walks compared with what can happen between the trades on construction sites." True. You've got the Carpenters outside the Federation but other building trades unions firmly inside the Federation. O'Sullivan is hot to go on leveraging the labor movement's considerable financial assets--something he would lose control over if he left the Federation. And he would still like to be seen as a potential Federation president.
Bottom line: whatever happens, the critical questions come in August...and beyond. So, tomorrow, I'm going to try to have ready a little document of Questions No One Has Answered--maybe to get a little discussion going here and other places about the big elephants in the room that are often sidestepped.
(P.S. Personally, I'm hoping for a quiet convention so I can sneak out to see the White Sox hammer the Red Sox and/or the Cubbies take on the Barry Bonds-less Giants, the latter game having no attraction other than Wrigley Field)
So does the latest news point toward Possibility number 1?
"Dissidents Threaten Labor Convention Boycott"
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/07/20/national/20labor.html
Posted by: JC | July 20, 2005 at 05:21 PM